The Cynical Archivist

U.S Endorsements... and a prediction

2004-11-02T07:56:00.000-08:00

PRESIDENT

John.F.Kerry (Democrat)

U.S SENATE

Democrat in all races except for:

Arizona: John McCain (Republican)
California: er... the Libertarian candidate
Ohio: No Endorsement
Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter (Republican)
Washington: er... I think a Greeny is running

U.S House

Democrats in most races (except for whackos. I ain't endorsing them) and Bernie Sanders (Soc) in VT.

Gubernatorial

Democrat in all races (although I'd like to see the Mountain Party crack 5% in WV)

...
So... who's going to win?
It all depends on turnout: if turnout is as high as Democrats claim it is, Kerry wins. If not it could be very, very, very close (if turnout actually falls, Bush wins easy).
In other words it's... uncertain...
No idea who's going to win the Senate... I guess the GOP *should* expand it's majority... but who knows...
Gallup are saying that the House could be close, but I don't see it. Maybe a few Republicans will go down, but I don't see it being enough.

Uncertainty and the American Election

2004-10-28T10:14:00.000-07:00

The defining feature of this election has and will probably continue to be uncertainty; the polls are jumping about more than an atheist walking on hot coals, both campaigns seem visibly nervous, the list of battleground states appears to be growing and partisan idiots are acting in more idiotically partisan ways than normal (which, judging from past form, indicates that they are very worried indeed). I'll go as far as saying that the only certain thing about the election is that the outcome is uncertain.
It shouldn't have been this way.Both sides were sure that after the Conventions/Debates/"Big Story x"/"Big Story y" their candidate was going to pull away leaving the "enemy" howling in their victorius wake.So much for theory.
Unless something changes (and folks I mean really changes... we're not talking Bush/Kerry gaining 3pts in some dodgy tracking poll here...) exactly who the man sitting in the Oval Office in January is will remain uncertain until Election Night... and judging by the armies of lawyers (and what a frightening concept an army of lawyers is) there's a good chance that it will remain uncertain for a while afrerwards.
Uncertain doesn't mean Close; it's possible that the bulk of the undecided voters (and there's a lot more of them than anyone seems to have banked on) will swing behind one candidate; it's also possible that they won't and it's even possible that undecideds will break differently in different states. Maybe even in different parts of the same state. But all of that is uncertain.
While uncertainty is a pain for pundits, partisans and political journalists, I think most people will agree that all three are due a come-uppance.Besides, uncertainty means that watching the election results live on the telly will be that more enjoyable.

This was first published on the www.uselectionatlas.org members weblog.

Ian Wright M.P

2004-10-01T14:30:00.000-07:00

So Wright's done it and Hartlepool now has a local M.P... Rennard's been outwitted again (yay! Give Fraser Kemp a "thank you" card) and the Tories... have come... have come... FOURTH!!!!!!!!!!!!! behind UKIP... fourth... ha!
I figure that now may be the time to make the following crass joke: Hartlepool has made a Monkey out of Howard...

Hartlepool Endorsement

2004-09-25T04:39:00.000-07:00

Hartlepool Stuff: I'm endorsing the Labour candidate (Wright). He's a local boy and looks like he could be a solid, hardworking M.P (which is what Hartlepool needs) as opposed to the LibDem candidate... who's remarks about locals are just disgusting.
The odd joke about the Monkey is fine, going on about all the locals being: "drunk, flanked by an angry dog or drunk" is NOT acceptible behavior for anyone, let alone a prospective M.P.

The Ignorance (or deceit) of the LibDems?

2004-09-22T04:55:00.000-07:00

Has anyone else noticed the breathtaking ignorance that Senior LibDems show towards Elections in general?

Lord Rennard (a quivering mass of lying blubber... and their elections "guru") said in a Radio interview last night that support for the LibDems is evenly spread across the country and social classes.
Either the "Noble" Lord is an idiot or he's lying through his teeth.
Support for the LibDems (and the Liberal/SDP Alliance in the '80's and the Post War Liberals) is concentrated amoung middle class voters... LibDem support amoung Working Class voters is tiny (you can count the number of LibDems is heavily working class seats on your right hand).
LibDem support isn't evenly spread across the country: almost all their support (and seats) are in the South, whether it's rural seats in the South West, or suburban seats in the South East.
LibDem seats outside Southern England tend to be in very remote areas (the Highlands, Mid Wales etc) or a result of a personal vote for the M.P
Rennard went on to imply that if the LibDems won 35% of the vote nationally (fat chance) they would win a landslide.
I don't know what set of figures the "Noble" Lord is using, but if you take a little look at these and mess about with swings on a calculator (as I've done), what Rennard said appears to be wishfull think at best... and that's assuming a uniform swing. If the LibDems *did* win 35% nationally, most of their existing seats would be won by massive majorities and most of the upswing would be in seats they don't have a prayer in anyways.

But enough about Rennard... Charles Kennedy is at it as well.
On several occasions when asked whether he thinks he can somehow win the next election, he's stated that "anything can happen with FPTP" citing the Canadian Federal Election of 1993 ("where the Conservatives were reduced to just two seats from a majority government") as his example.
Some facts that Kennedy neglected to mention:

1. At the time of the election, Canada was in it's biggest ever Constitutional Crisis (remember Meech Lake anyone? Charlottetown?) and there seemed a real possibility that Canada would not exist going into the next century.
2. The PC's had split into three parties: Bloq Quebecois, Reform, and the rump of the PC's.
3. The Canadian Electorate is far, far more volitile than the British Electorate (just ask Gordon Campbell, David Peterson or Bob Rae...) and Class Divisions do not dominate political allegiance (except in the Greater Vancouver Greater Winnepeg areas... and even in those Cities, Class was far from the voters minds in 1993).
4. Incumbent P.M, Kim Campbell, ran the worst campaign in Canadian History, and had taken over a scandel plauged (when the Canadians do scandels they do they French style...) Government very recently.
5. The Canadian House of Commons has half the seats the British House of Commons does.
I could go on... and on... and on...

And then there's Ed "I don't know when the Labour Party was founded" Davey...
If I wrote about Ed "Pendle District Council is a big Northern City" Davey I think I'd start ranting (think the above paragraphs are rants, eh? You ain't seen nothing yet...)
So I won't write about that irritating little suburban schmuck.

Bye, Bye Big 'Ead

2004-09-22T04:48:00.000-07:00

"At last England have appointed a manager who speaks English better than the players."
On the appointment of Sven Goran Eriksson as England manager.

Brian Clough
1935-2004

Conference Time...

2004-09-20T09:36:00.000-07:00

Politicians, Municiple Hacks, Ultra-Partisan fanatics, Idiotic Journo's heading to the seaside for a few weeks to bore us all with their fatuous analysis and dull speechs.
Yes it's Party Conference time... take cover...
Oh and for a few days the media will head up to Monkeyville to cover the by-election (September 30th).

Reflections on 9/11

2004-09-11T06:02:00.000-07:00

As you all know, today is the third anniversary of the abominal terrorist atrocities on the United States, and doubtless a lot of media attention will be focused on it (and rightly so), but it's worth remembering that 9/11 is the anniversary of two other events:

The Pinochet Coup d'Etat in Chile (1973)
The attack by Italian Ultra-Nationalists on the small Slovenian town of Fiume (either 1919 or 1920... can't remember which) which in effect created the Fascist movement in Italy.

Let us remember the victims of all three events, both direct victims and indirect victims.

Mark Thatcher has been arrested

2004-08-25T08:34:00.000-07:00

Mark Thatcher has been arrested. Mark Thatcher has been arrested. Mark Thatcher has been arrested. Mark Thatcher has been arrested. Mark Thatcher has been arrested. Mark Thatcher has been arrested.

No, my computer's cut&paste thingamajig has gone kaput: I just like saying: Mark Thatcher has been arrested.
And it's true as well!

Made my day that has :-)

Rodney the Rat

2004-08-07T04:30:00.000-07:00

This is what Congressman Rodney Alexander (5th District, Louisiana) said in March when he decided against defecting to the GOP:

"I'd be letting some people down who worked very hard for me and I would hate to let anybody down ... Although I am flattered by the offers of the Republicans to join their ranks, I am deciding to stay where I am..."

This is what Congressman Rodney Alexander said on Wednesday when he filed for re-election as a Democrat:

"I'm not ashamed to be a Democrat, but I vote what I think the people of the 5th District want me to represent,"

This is what Congressman Rodney Alexander said on Friday when, minutes before the filing deadline closed, he filed as to run for re-election as a Republican:

"I just decided it would be best for me to switch parties, that I would be more effective in the Fifth District in the state of Louisiana as a Republican"

To describe Alexander as a coward is an insult to cowards, so let's call him something more insulting:

Rodney the Rat

Admittedly that's probably an insult to rats (and I apologise for any offense caused to all rodents everywhere) but the more... ah... appropriate insults are sadly unprintable.

Hartlepool stuff

2004-08-03T08:51:00.000-07:00

For news on the impending by-election in the land of the hanged monkey, Guacamoleville is worth a read

Dundee

2004-07-29T09:40:00.000-07:00

On the north shore of the Tay, Dundee used to be known for "Jute, Jam and Journalism". IIRC only journalism is left.
Unlike most Cities in the U.K, Dundee isn't divided by class divisions as much as Seperatism v Unionism/Federalism (kinda like a little Quebec really) with Dundee West being the "Federalist" seat (and is safely Labour and is certainly more run down than East) while Dundee East is the "Seperatist" seat (a Labour-SNP swinger).
Dundee West is a Labour seat at both Westminster and Holyrood, while Dundee East has a Labour M.P and an SNP M.S.P.
Although the SNP will doubtless target Dundee East (again) it's not as Seperatist friendly as it was in the '80's and I'd guess that Labour will win it next year (albeit with a reduced majority).
Once again I've no idea about local politics in the City.

Bye Bye Marsden

2004-07-29T09:32:00.000-07:00

You will not be missed

It's hard to think of a more unpleasent M.P than Paul Marsden (where shall I start? The whole defection thing which was messy enough it's own right, the stalking, the theft of Labour party equipment...)
Had he dared to face the electorate of Shrewsbury and Atcham he would have come a poor third.
Nice to know we'll all be seeing the back of him soon...

The Prince of Darkness is back...

2004-07-23T03:21:00.000-07:00

Mandelson gets E.U job

This'll trigger a by-election in Hartlepool, when Mandy resigns his seat at some point in the autumn.
Monkeyland has really weird politics (electing as it did a man in a monkey suit as Mayor...) but the by-election is a while off yet.

Aberdeen

2004-07-22T02:38:00.000-07:00

Aberdeen is the oil capital of Europe (or so I'm told) and has a reputation for being rather... er... depressing, rainy, cold, windswept and not at all pretty to look at. The fact that it's in the middle of nowhere on the North East coast of Scotland hasn't helped.
Historically Aberdeen had two seats: Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South. Aberdeen North was a safe Labour seat and was mostly working class, while Aberdeen South was normally a Tory seat (except for 1966-70 and 1987-1992 when Labour held it) and was a mostly middle class seat.
However in the 1995 boundary changes, Aberdeen got another seat. The bulk of the old seat of Aberdeen North was given to Aberdeen Central, Aberdeen South was combined with some rural areas, while a new seat (Aberdeen North) was created, covering the City's northern Suburbs, and is a mixed seat with both middle class suburbs and working class council estates.
Currently all three are held by Labour, though South is vunerable to the LibDems, and the SNP won North in the Holyrood elections and think they can replicate this at Westminster level (bearing in mind the SNP's current state I'm beginning to doubt this).
I don't know anything about local politics in Aberdeen (IIRC it's NOC and the largest group are the LibDems. I may be wrong) and at Holyrood level, Labour hold Central, the SNP North and the LibDems South.

Next up: Dundee

Two projects

2004-07-22T02:14:00.000-07:00

Over the next few weeks/months/etc I'm going to start two new "series" on this blog:

The Politics of Cities (U.K, U.S, Canada, Australia... and maybe a few European Cities as well)
Politicians I admire (Not the same as agree or even like)

You have been Warned

Congressman Butterfield

2004-07-21T11:47:00.000-07:00

Butterfield has won the NC-1 special election... with about 70% of the vote! 70% in a 70% Dem district... nice.

NC-1 Prediction

2004-07-20T02:23:00.000-07:00

Butterfield should win big... NC-1 is (just about) a Black Majority district... and most of the Whites are Yella' Dawg Democrats...
I suppose there's a small chance of an upset if turnout is truely pathetic... but more interesting is the primary, where Butterfield has some serious opposition... my predictions are that he wins by a large margin in the Special Election and by a smaller margin in the Primary.

Terry Davis: By-election Man

2004-07-19T03:29:00.000-07:00

It's fitting that Terry Davis (Lab-Hodge Hill) should have left the Commons via a by-election, as his political career was shaped by them more than any other senior politician over the past 30 odd years.

In 1971 Terry Davis was elected M.P for Bromsgrove in a stunning by-election upset. As it was Bromsgrove, he lost his seat in the 1974 (Feb) General Election.

In 1977 Terry Davis was defeated in the Birmingham Stechford By-election. He ran again in the 1979 General Election... and won. He held Brum Stechford (from 1983, Brum Hodge Hill) from 1979 to 2004.

In 2004 Terry Davis resigned his seat (Birmingham Hodge Hill) to take a job in the Council of Europe. This triggered a by-election and Liam Byrne (Labour) was elected the new M.P for Brum HH.

Davis' career in the Commons began with a By-election and ended with one. How many other M.P's over the past 30 odd years can claim that?

Liam Byrne M.P

2004-07-19T02:45:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to Liam Byrne... from what I saw at the count he's a lot better than he looked on the Telly... could be a good M.P.
Despite the narrow margin of his victory (which would have been larger to the tune of about 2000 votes had it not rained) he'll be in Parliament for a while.
Some interesting trends in the Brum HH by-election: it seems that Byrne took the white working class vote (see! My theory is correct!) while Nokia took the Pakistani vote. Most of the white voters work inside Brum proper (HH being a lunchboxish blue collar 'burb) while most of the Pakistanis live in the Washwood Heath area (cursed by high unemployment and so on IIRC). What this meant was that Labour's hopes of hanging onto HH seem to have been based on the theory that Lunchbox Man would vote on the way home from work.
Which is sort of what happend... seems that the rain put a load off voting.
Still Byrne beat Nokia.

Heard a rumour that Soulsby might run again in the General Election next year... I'm hoping it's true... (he was born in Bishop Auckland. That's reason enough to hope he runs again methinks) I have to admit that he did a lot better than I thought he would and seems to have been cheated of winning by the rain (memo to the P.M: in future check the weather forecasts when deciding when to call by-elections) and with a higher turnout likely come the General Election he's got a good chance at knocking off Singh Gill.

Results

2004-07-16T01:19:00.000-07:00

The results of last nights by-elections are in and: Labour held onto Brum HH, while the LibDems gained Leicester South.
Not really suprising... although had the heavens not opened in the afternoon, Labour would have won Brum HH by a lot more than they did... and they might have held Leicester South as well.
The behavior of the LibDems at the Birmingham count was shocking though... shouting "David Kelly" over and over again was just sickening.
And I'm really, really glad that Nokia Davies lost.

Predictions

2004-07-15T11:11:00.000-07:00

Quick predictions for the by-elections:

Leicester South: Probably LibDem
Brum HH: Dunno. Not heard anything from the seat recently

Endorsements

2004-07-12T14:34:00.000-07:00

Most political blogs do self importent things like endorsing candidates and so on.
Not wishing to be the exception that proves that disturbing (er... healthy for democracy or somthing...) rule I'm going to "endorse" the following candidates:

Leicester South: Peter Soulsby (Labour). Sure he's probably going to lose, but hey... backing a probable loser (I mean underdog) is part of British political culture dammit!

Birmingham Hodge Hill: Er... um... well the thing is ALL the candidates come off (at least on telly) as either creeps (Labour, Tory) or have a major conflict of interest (LibDem).
As choice is the buzzword these days I'd better choose *someone*...
Well I'm not backing a Tory, on principle, and I'm not backing anyone involved with the mobile phone industry... so I'm endorsing Liam Byrne (Labour). Not that I like the look of him, but he's the best of a really bad set of choices.
Are the Monster Raving Loonies running a candidate?

1st District North Carolina: G.K.Butterfield (D). I'd rather die than endorse the whacko the GOP have picked.

By-election update

2004-07-10T07:24:00.000-07:00

Exaggeration is the name of the game.
Most journo's are describing Leicester South as a "Rock Solid Labour seat" and at least one has called Brum HH an "Ultra Safe Labour seat".
Strange... Y'know I would have thought that a mostly lower middle class seat that went Tory in '83 and that Labour only won back in '87 because of the Labour candidate's personal popularity (Leicester South) wasn't exactly rock solid... and that a seat with large amounts of "Reagan Democrats" and Muslims, that Labour lost in a by-election in 1977 (Brum HH) wasn't really ultra safe (Ultra Safe is, IMO, Sedgefield or Sheffield Brightside).
Anyone would think that the media was trying to create an "upset" result...
Oh and I've changed my mind on Leicester South: I think that the LibDems are now slight favourites to pick it up (from what I've been hearing, they've done their usual saturation trick).

It's Edwards!

2004-07-06T06:14:00.001-07:00

Great news!

Kerry picks Edwards

It's Edwards!

2004-07-06T06:14:00.000-07:00

Great news!

Kerry picks Edwards

Two Midlands by-elections...

2004-07-01T04:11:00.000-07:00

On the 15th of July, there will be two by-elections: Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South, both are currently Labour seats (although Leicester South is more due to a personal vote for the recently deceased M.P than anything else).

Brum HH is a somewhat "Reagan Democratish" seat in Eastern Birmingham (albeit with a large Asian population) the Labour campaign is using socially conservative themes (eg: crime, druggies, yobs) that play well in most of the seat, while the LibDems are going after the "Muslim protest vote" (which wedge issue will win? Sadly it *does* appear to be coming down to that) I haven't heard what the Tories are running on yet.
My initial guess would be a Labour hold with around 45% of the vote... although upsets *do* happen in that seat (in 1977 it went Tory in a by-election. Called Brum Stechford then) and Labour's main problem there is getting their vote out.
Which is easier said than done.

Moving on to Leicester South, Leicester Council is run by an unholy coalition of the LibDems and Tories... and is rather unpopular.
The Labour candidate is very, very anti-war and was the leader of the council 'till last year *but* he lost his seat that year.
The LibDem candidate won a credible 17% of the vote in 2001 and is Asian *but* he's a Sikh. Muslims do not vote for Sikhs (look at Bradford West). He might also be mentally linked with the Council.
The Tory candidate is an MEP. *But* there was a bad smell about his selection as candidate.
There was a rumour than Robert Kilroy-Silk was going to run for UKIP (shudders) Looks unlikely *but* they will poll strongly.
"RESPECT" (that's George Galloway's mob folks) is a wildcard and will take most of the Muslim protest votes... *if* they can find a candidate...
The seat is mostly lower middle class and has a large Asian population. Do not rule out the NSDAP (er... BNP) winning back there deposit.
Waaaaaaaaaaay to close to call either way(s)...

BC Reactions

2004-06-29T01:18:00.000-07:00

BC boasted a load of close three way and two way fights, and although the CPC narrowly won most of 'em (isn't vote splitting a pain sometimes?) the Grits and Dippers (who's recovery in BC has been dramatic) have a right to be pleased by the BC results.

The real shockers happend in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, where much-written off NDPer Nathan Cullen beat CPC incumbent Andy Burton and a strong Grit candidate in Miles Richardson, and North Vancouver where the Liberal candidate Don Bell knocked off the loathsome Ted White.
A near shocker happend in Vancouver Island North, where popular CPC incumbent John Duncan was nearly beaten by NDPer Catherine Bell.
As expected Surrey North MP Chuck Cadman humiliated his old party, getting re-elected as an Independent. The official CPC candidate came fourth.

David Anderson pulled off yet another houdini act in Victoria (as did Landslide Ann over the border in Alberta. What is it with these two?) and Jean Crowder won back Tommy Douglas's old seat, Nanaimo-Cowichan for the NDP.

Overall the NDP did better than I had expected in the Interior, but worse in Vancouver proper, while the CPC lost most of their "Reagan Democrat" voters and, for once, Grit support didn't collapse as soon as the writ dropped.
Although with a new election looming on the horizon this could all change again...

Reactions

2004-06-29T01:00:00.000-07:00

The results are in (see below) and it seems that Martin's personal popularity didn't just save the Grits, it gave them 36 more seats than the Reformatories, who did worse than just about every pundit, pollster and partisan hack could have guessed.
Although the Dippers didn't win many seats, they increased their share of the popular vote by a hellofalot and came *very* close to winning double the number of seats they actually won (so many races were so close). The BQ (as expected) won big in Quebec.

The saddest part of the results was seeing the CPC's sickening Child Porn slur pay off big time in Saskatchewan (only just though. The amount of ultra-close ridings in Sask was remarkable).

The "Layton Yuppy" effect never materialised... although Layton won his own riding, the only other Ontario NDP seat that wasn't more than just a little blue collar was Ottawa Centre (Ed's baaaaaaaaaaack!).

UPDATE:
Defeated (but only just) NDP MP, Lorne Nystrom is blaming "Liberal scare tactics" for his defeat.
Methinks his enthusiasm for electoral reform may well have just increased... (the NDP won 23% of the vote in Sask but didn't win a single seat, while the CPC won 41% but won 13 out of 14...)

And the results are in...

2004-06-29T00:52:00.000-07:00

Party Seats % of vote
Liberal 135 36.7
CPC 99 29.6
NDP 19 15.7
BQ 54 12.4
Ind (Cadman) 1

NC-1 Special Election

2004-06-28T10:16:00.000-07:00

Down in Dixie, Congressman Frank Ballance (D-NC) resigned his seat (because of "ill health". The fact that he's a crook has nowt to do with it apparently) in the US House of Representatives on the 11th of June and a Special Election will be held on the 20th of July.
The Democrats have nominated former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice, G.K.Butterfield, while the GOP have dredged up the man that Ballance trounced in 2002, Greg Dority.

Demographics

Black: 50%
White: 44%
Median Household Income: $28,410
Poverty: 21.1%

Past Results

Gore: 58.4%
Bush: 41.1%

Ballance: 63.7%
Dority: 34.7%

Canadian Federal Election

2004-06-28T05:02:00.000-07:00

Canadians go to the polls today in what is closest election since 1979, with the governing Liberal party expected to lose it's overall majority, although the newly formed/united/whatever Conservative party is not expected to win a majority either.
Which means a minority government with either the social democratic NDP or the Quebec-seperatist BQ holding the balance of power.
Both seem set to record their best results for quite a while...

Naturally Election Prediction Project has been inundated with predictions by everything from elections junkies to desperate political hacks.
Their final prediction is:

Lib 121 seats
Con 105
NDP 29
BQ 52
Ind 1

A few notes on the local elections...

2004-06-26T06:25:00.000-07:00

There was a completely unreported trend in the recent council elections over here.

This is a list of all the councils Labour lost overall control/lost to another party:

Newcastle
Leeds
Bassetlaw
Burnley
Cardiff
St Helens
Oxford
Ipswich
Swansea
Hastings
Doncaster
Bridgend
Slough
Tamworth
Thurrock

Of those, these have been involved in *major* scandels/dodgy leaders etc:

Cardiff
Oxford
Swansea
Doncaster

But most interesting is this. The following have large "Progressive Yuppy" population:

Newcastle
Leeds
Cardiff
Oxford
Ipswich
Swansea
Hastings
Slough

While the following have lots of [middle class] suburbs/commuting "villages":

Newcastle
Leeds
Bassetlaw
Cardiff
Swansea
Bridgend
Tamworth
Thurrock

Meanwhile this is a list of the councils that Labour won over control over:

Stoke-on-Trent
Hartlepool
Rhondda Cynon Taff
Caerphilly
Redditch
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Merthyr Tydfil

Of those the following could be described as having a very large working class population:

Stoke-on-Trent
Hartlepool
Rhondda Cynon Taff
Caerphilly
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Merthyr Tydfil

Go figure.

Beginnings...

2004-06-26T03:00:00.000-07:00

This is (or will become) a blog about elections, maps, historical stuff and maybe some philosophical and theological musings.
You get the idea.

I also have a small archives site